Market Update 11/19/2019
Last week ended with the October industrial production report meaningfully disappointing, which helped Treasurys stage a week-end rally.
Last week ended with the October industrial production report meaningfully disappointing, which helped Treasurys stage a week-end rally.
The short end of the yield curve declined last week as futures increasingly price in expectations for a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting and the U.S. and China reached a near term cease-fire concerning further tariffs.
Yields dropped last week for short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury notes as investors digested mixed economic data throughout the week.
Short-term Treasury yields rose moderately while long-term Treasury yields dropped moderately over the course of the week on talks of monetary policy and increased trade tensions between the United States and China.
Thursday of last week witnessed the 30-year Treasury yield fall below 2% for the first time ever and the U.S. two-year bond had a higher yield than the U.S. ten-year bond for the first time since before the last recession.
Yields continued to fall during a busy week that included an interest rate cut, an escalation in the trade war between the U.S. and China, and new jobs data. On Wednesday, the Fed cut rates by 0.25%, citing weak global growth, trade uncertainty, and soft inflation.
Even when not meeting the Federal Reserve is managing to move markets. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s President John Williams commented that it is beneficial for monetary policy to respond quickly when there is need for stimulus as a result of slowing economic conditions.
Treasury prices rose over the course of the week as the Federal Reserve signaled that monetary policy would be eased later this year.
The Treasury rally slowed last week while consumer inflation expectations hit record lows. The Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy rose 2.0% in May over a year ago and 0.1% from the prior month, the Labor Department said Wednesday.
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